Money and Oil is Not Enough to Keep US Interested: Kuwait’s Location Problem


Kuwait is an anomaly. It is a little patch of calm and prosperity in an otherwise chaotic region – the Middle East. Currently, the nation’s living standards are among the highest on earth, the oil industry is professional, and there is a noticeable lack of conflict. So, where does this little powerhouse go from here?

The global energy market is changing by the day. Asian countries are largely dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East rather than the United States. And there is a lot of oil. The price may fluctuate due to conflicts between oil producing nations, but there is no fear of a shortage.

The cost of renewable energy is falling and the full potential of battery technology remains unknown. It is clear that the economics of energy supply and demand is going to change. It is equally apparent that climate change is happening and that it is a serious danger. Kuwait hit a staggering 54 degrees Celsius back in 2016.

So, what is Kuwait position in all of this? Kuwait is well aware of the risks and is continuing to take advantage of its stable government and cheap oil. The country has also been building up an impressive portfolio of foreign investment over the past several years.

Kuwait’s oil will carry on being competitive so long as oil is in demand. Even if demand peaks soon, as there are rumours of it doing, Kuwait should still be safe as its supplies are easier to access than many of its competitors. While there have been some attempts to diversify the nation’s wealth, it remains clear that Kuwait understands its strength is in oil.

Thus, Kuwait plans to raise its production capacity. This increase will take it from three millions barrels per day to around 4.75 million per day by 2040. If the country’s actual production rises in line with this capacity, Kuwait will climb to the top of the ladder as one of the largest oil producers and exporters in the world.

Kuwait seems to have its future paved with gold, right? Well, not quite. The issue of its location remains an inescapable problem. Kuwait is in a dangerous region and the temptation of hundreds of billions of barrels of oil is very precarious.

Already, Kuwait’s association with the west and its US bases have caused anger among terror groups, including Al-Qaeda. Right now, these groups are too busy killing each other to focus their attention on Kuwait. But, if they do it will be disastrous. Kuwait does not have the resources to defend itself against an aggressive and powerful adversary.

This has caused interest from the United States to wane as the country – both government and public – have made it clear they do not want to fight any more wars in the Middle East. Europe seems more engaged in the matter but is very unlikely to form a coalition with the US to defend Kuwait, as it did when it invaded Iraq.

The only thing Kuwait has to offer to secure protection is oil. Hopefully, its increase in output will draw in international companies. Of course, there is no guarantee of security, but attackers may be deterred by the thought of taking on giants, such as PetroChina, ExxonMobil and Rosneft.


Kuwait is smart enough to deal with the ever-changing energy market. It can even handle fluctuating oil prices. But, what it cannot change is its location and it is this that could prove fatal. 

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